Market analyst James Harte has shared his analysis of Bitcoin’s price on Tickmill, highlighting that the decrease in Bitcoin’s price continues with BTC futures falling around 14% from the year-to-date highs.
Harte noted that after breaking to new all-time highs last week, BTC has been under sustained selling pressure, and futures are currently on track to record their fourth consecutive day of losses. He also pointed out that there has been much discussion recently about whether the current surge in Bitcoin constitutes a bubble, to the point where many commentators are warning of an imminent drop:
“Indeed, the current pullback has triggered the liquidation of around $500 million in long positions. Notably, there were net outflows from BTC ETFs this week after weeks of record inflows,” he said.
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Will the Sell-Off Deepen?
In this context, the analyst mentioned that the sell-off makes many wonder if the BTC rally has ended and if a 2021/2022-style sell-off is imminent. However, he comments that for him, looking ahead, there are still many reasons to remain optimistic about BTC:
“The next halving in April is widely expected to be a bullish catalyst in the medium and long term, with previous cycles tending towards higher prices in the 6 to 12 months following. Additionally, the prospect of Fed easing this year should also help support prices,” he added.
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The Fed in Focus
On the other hand, Harte also expressed that attention this week will be focused on tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. In this sense, he speculated that the current pullback likely reflects some profit-taking and position adjustment ahead of the event.
In his opinion, BTC bulls need to hear the Fed signal an expected easing in the coming months:
“This should weaken the USD and boost risk assets. If we hear further hawkish reactions from the Federal Reserve, this is likely to further curb BTC in the short term. Traders should also pay close attention to the dot plot forecasts for any change in the Fed’s outlook,” Harte said.
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Technical Analysis
Finally, regarding technical analysis, Harte highlighted that the failure at $74,325 has caused the market to plummet below the bullish channel lows and fall back below the $69,355 level. According to him, the price is now testing the $64,540 support and with bearish momentum studies, the risks of a breakdown are increasing.
