Mainstream Conservatives Triumph as Far-Right Surges in German Election
Provisional results from Germany’s national election have confirmed a decisive victory for mainstream conservatives under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made historic gains, becoming the country’s second-largest party. The election, held seven months earlier than planned, was driven by concerns over Germany’s stagnant economy and rising tensions over migration. These issues have caused friction, particularly after Merz pushed for a tougher stance on immigration in the final weeks of the campaign. Against the backdrop of uncertainty over Ukraine’s future and the stability of Europe’s alliance with the United States, the election has set the stage for a new political landscape in Germany.
Merz’s Conservatives Secure Majority, Scholz to Remain Chancellor for Now
Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged as the strongest force in the Bundestag, Germany’s national legislature, securing 208 seats out of 630. The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suffered a significant setback, winning only 120 seats. Despite their losses, the SPD, along with the CDU/CSU, still holds a combined majority, giving Merz the best chance of forming the next government. Merz has expressed his intention to form a government by Easter at the latest, though coalition negotiations in Germany are often complex and time-consuming.
For now, Olaf Scholz will remain in office as caretaker chancellor until a new government is formed. The election also saw the collapse of the former ruling coalition, with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) losing ground. The FDP failed to cross the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag, while the Greens secured only 85 seats. The Left party and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance also struggled, with the latter falling just short of the 5% hurdle.
Far-Right AfD Celebrates Historic Gains, Vows to Expand Influence
The far-right AfD, known for its anti-immigrant stance and euroscepticism, achieved its best-ever result, winning 152 seats and becoming the second-largest party in Germany. The party’s leaders were jubilant on election night, pledging to become the country’s main party in the next election. Despite its success, the AfD remains isolated, as other parties have maintained a “firewall” against it, refusing to form coalitions or even negotiate with the party. This exclusion is partly due to the AfD’s ties to right-wing extremism, with its branches in three eastern states designated as “proven right-wing extremist” groups by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. The party strongly objects to this labeling, but the stigma has kept it out of state and national governments since its founding 12 years ago.
Election Reflects Widespread Discontent and Geopolitical Tensions
The early election was triggered by the collapse of Scholz’s unpopular coalition in November, just three years into its term. The campaign was marked by widespread discontent and a lack of enthusiasm for the candidates. Voters expressed frustration over Germany’s economic stagnation and the government’s handling of migration, issues that took center stage in the election. The election also played out against a backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions, with Merz drawing attention to interventions by the United States and Russia in the campaign. Both U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Elon Musk, a Trump ally, openly supported the AfD, prompting Merz to criticize foreign interference in German politics.
Merz Pledges to Unify Europe Amid Rising Pressures from U.S. and Russia
In his victory speech, Merz emphasized the need to unify Europe in the face of challenges from both the United States and Russia. He described the interventions by U.S. figures and Moscow as “dramatic, drastic, and ultimately outrageous,” and called for European unity to counter these pressures. Merz’s priorities reflect Germany’s strategic importance as the most populous country in the European Union and a leading member of NATO. Germany has been a key player in supporting Ukraine, serving as the second-largest weapons supplier after the U.S., and will be central to shaping Europe’s response to future challenges, including the Trump administration’s confrontational foreign and trade policies.
Looking ahead, Merz acknowledged the scale of the challenges facing Germany and Europe, from reestablishing a stable government to addressing economic stagnation and migration pressures. He vowed to approach these tasks with “utmost respect” and a sense of responsibility. However, the road ahead will not be easy, as coalition negotiations are likely to be contentious, and the AfD’s growing influence will continue to polarize German politics. As Merz works to form a new government, the world will be watching to see how Germany navigates its internal divisions and external pressures in the months and years to come.
