Welcome to the New Fire Reality
The Santa Ana winds howled through Southern California last night, fanning flames that turned palm trees into towering infernos and sent embers dancing across the Pacific Coast Highway. The Pacific Palisades high school was engulfed, its campus reduced to ash as the fire spread relentlessly. Nearby, the grounds of the Getty Villa ignited, a grim reminder of the region’s vulnerability. Climate scientist Daniel Swain, broadcasting live from his YouTube channel, painted a dire picture: the fire would only grow worse, with winds strengthening and tens of thousands fleeing for safety. Sunset Boulevard became a parking lot as ash rained down, forcing drivers to abandon their cars and escape on foot. A bulldozer cleared a path through the chaos, allowing emergency vehicles to reach the front lines of the disaster.
This is not the fire season Southern California is used to. Traditionally, fires subside by January, but in this semi-arid landscape, the rules have changed. The region is now a tinderbox, primed to burn at any time. Drought has tightened its grip, with no meaningful rain falling since May. A record-breaking summer left the land drier than almost any year on record. Grasses and sagebrush, once green and vibrant after spring rains, withered into brittle fuel, waiting for the inevitable spark. As The Atlantic noted last summer, California’s fire luck had finally run out. Glen MacDonald, a UCLA geography professor, put it starkly: “You’d have to go back to the late 1800s to see a start to the rainy season this dry.”
California’s Climate Conundrum
The Santa Ana winds, legendary for their ferocity, swept in with their usual force, but this time they were stronger than average. These downslope gusts are notorious for draining the air of humidity, leaving behind a parched, vulnerable landscape. With vegetation crisp and dry, and winds hot and relentless, the conditions were explosive. “The gun was loaded,” MacDonald said, and it was pointed directly at Pacific Palisades.
MacDonald has spent years studying the intersection of climate change and wildfires. He and his colleagues have published research warning that Southern California’s wildfire season will start earlier and last longer in the years to come, driven by human-caused climate warming. The longer the fire season, the higher the odds of a dangerous overlap between fire-weather days, Santa Ana wind days, and the moment a spark ignites. More than 90% of fires in the region are caused by human activity, MacDonald noted. Last night, as flames consumed the Palisades, he watched his research unfold in real time.
A Perfect Storm of Fire
From his home in Thousand Oaks, MacDonald could see the smoke rising from the Palisades Fire. He and his family were prepared, with important documents packed in case they needed to evacuate. In a year as dry as this one, the concept of a fire season no longer applies, he explained. “You can have a fire any month of the year.”
By morning, two more major fires had erupted, pushing deeper into suburban areas where residents scrambled to flee. The Los Angeles mayor warned the city to brace for more devastation. Over 5,000 acres had already burned, leaving an unknown number of structures in ruins. Schools closed, and health officials issued warnings about the hazardous air quality, urging people to wear masks and stay indoors as smoke and soot blanketed parts of the city.
Living on the Edge
As MacDonald watched the smoke from his home, his thoughts turned to his colleagues at UCLA, some of whom lived in the active fire zone. He texted them, knowing they might not respond for a while. He understood the fear and uncertainty all too well. In 2018, he evacuated during the Woolsey Fire, which scorched nearly 100,000 acres and destroyed 1,600 buildings, including homes in his neighborhood. When asked what it’s like to study the future of fire in California while living through it, he replied, “It makes the work more immediate. It gives you a sense of unease. As the summer ends and you know you’re dried out, you look around you at things you own, and you think, This could just be ashes.”
A Glimpse into the Future
The firesraging across Southern California are a preview of what’s to come. As climate change continues to reshape the region’s weather patterns, the fire season will only grow longer and more unpredictable. The Santa Ana winds, once a seasonal nuisance, will become a year-round threat, capable of igniting fires at any time. The droughts will deepen, the heatwaves will intensify, and the vegetation will remain a tinderbox waiting to burn. MacDonald’s research suggests that the region is entering a new era of fire danger, one where the old rules no longer apply.
The Human Toll
For those living in Southern California, the reality of this new era is already personal. The fear of evacuation, the loss of homes, the constant vigilance for smoke on the horizon—these are the hallmarks of life in a region increasingly defined by fire. As MacDonald watched the flames consume the Palisades, he couldn’t help but think of the future. The fires of today are a grim reminder of what tomorrow may bring. For those who call this land home, the question is no longer if the next fire will come, but when. And when it does, will they be ready?