The End of a Chapter: Ukraine’s War Enters a New Phase
Today, the war in Ukraine marked a significant turning point, as the U.S. signaled a shift in its support for Kyiv, effectively closing the door on Ukraine’s hopes of reclaiming its sovereign territory or achieving its key security guarantees. While bloody fighting and missile strikes will persist, the conflict has entered a new, and likely final, chapter. This shift comes as Donald Trump, known for his deference toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, has returned to power, promising to end the war quickly. Trump’s approach to the conflict became apparent when he called Putin, framing the conversation as the start of negotiations to end the war. Only afterward did he inform Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of the discussion, a move that underscored Ukraine’s diminishing influence in its own conflict.
A New Era of U.S.-Russia Relations Under Trump
Trump’s call with Putin was symbolic, as it marked the end of Western efforts to isolate the Russian leader following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The two leaders discussed the "strengths of their respective nations" and the potential for future collaboration. Trump even highlighted that Putin had used his campaign slogan, "COMMON SENSE," during their conversation. While Trump later spoke with Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader was not extended the same offer of direct negotiations. Instead, Zelensky is set to meet with U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference. This chain of events reinforces the notion that Ukraine’s leverage in the conflict is slipping away.
The U.S. Shifts Its Stance: Ukraine’s Goals Deemed Unrealistic
The Trump administration made its position clear when U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared that Ukraine’s objective of restoring its pre-2014 borders, including Crimea, was "unrealistic." Hegseth also stated that pursuing this goal would only prolong the war and cause more suffering. Additionally, the administration signaled that it does not support Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO, a position long opposed by Putin. Hegseth further emphasized that Europe should take greater responsibility for its own defense, indicating a reduction in U.S. involvement. These statements have alarmed Kyiv, which has heavily relied on American financial and military aid to resist Russia’s invasion. Zelensky recently emphasized that "security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees," reflecting Ukraine’s deep concern over its future.
Putin Gains Momentum as Ukraine’s Options Narrow
Despite the war not unfolding as Putin initially envisioned, Russia now appears to have the upper hand. The Kremlin rejected a recent proposal by Zelensky to exchange territory seized during Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kursk region for land captured by Russia. Trump himself acknowledged that it was "unlikely Ukraine gets all of its land back," further dampening Kyiv’s hopes. Putin, meanwhile, has signaled that Russia will not accept a simple ceasefire and instead seeks broader concessions from the West. The fact that Trump and Putin held a call at all marks a significant shift, as it ends the West’s efforts to isolate the Russian leader. This newfound openness between Trump and Putin has raised concerns about the implications for Ukraine and the global order.
Trump’s Approach: A Mix of Diplomacy and Controversy
Trump’s actions suggest a desire to stabilize relations with Moscow, even as he navigates the complexities of the Ukraine conflict. A recent prisoner swap, which returned American teacher Marc Fogel from a Russian labor camp, was seen as a step toward improving ties. Trump also revealed that he and Putin had agreed to "work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations," a statement that could pave the way for a historic meeting. While Trump floated Saudi Arabia as a potential neutral site for their first encounter, the Kremlin confirmed that Putin had extended an invitation for Trump to visit Moscow. If realized, this would be Trump’s first visit to Russia as president and another chapter in his long, controversial entanglement with Russia.
A Troubling Implication: Welcoming Putin Back Into the Fold
Trump’s willingness to engage with Putin, despite the Russian leader’s war crimes and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has drawn criticism. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023 for alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide in Ukraine. Yet, Trump seems ready to welcome Putin back into the international fold, a move that would undermine efforts to hold Russia accountable for its actions. This approach aligns with Trump’s broader foreign policy vision, which often prioritizes personal relationships and deals over traditional alliances and human rights concerns. As Trump names his negotiating team for talks with Russia, including figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, the exclusion of Keith Kellogg, a more hawkish voice on Russia, suggests that Trump’s approach will lean toward accommodation rather than confrontation.
The Future of the Conflict and Global Security
The implications of these developments are profound. Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression may weaken without robust U.S. support, and the country’s hopes for sovereignty and security guarantees seem increasingly out of reach. Putin, on the other hand, is poised to capitalize on the shifting geopolitical landscape. The U.S.-Russia relationship under Trump could redefine the post-Cold War order, with potential ripple effects across Europe and beyond. As the conflict in Ukraine enters its final chapter, the world watches anxiously to see how these new dynamics will unfold and what they mean for global stability.
