The Daily Ritual of Weather Monitoring and Its Abrupt Disruption
For years, meteorologists at the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Kotzebue, Alaska, have faithfully launched weather balloons twice a day. These balloons collect critical data such as wind speed, humidity, and temperature, which are then used to create weather forecasts and models. This routine is replicated at dozens of weather stations across the United States, forming the backbone of the country’s weather monitoring system. However, on a Thursday morning in late 2023, the NWS announced the indefinite suspension of these balloon launches in Kotzebue due to staffing shortages. This decision marked the beginning of a series of unexpected and alarming developments that would shake the entire agency.
Just hours after the announcement from Kotzebue, news began to circulate about mass layoffs within the NWS and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Over 800 employees were expected to lose their jobs, many of whom were probationary staff—those easiest to dismiss. The layoffs were part of broader efforts by the Trump administration to reshape the federal workforce, particularly through the implementation of policies outlined in the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025.” This 900-page blueprint calls for a significant reduction in the federal government’s size and scope, including the privatization of key services like weather forecasting.
The terminations sent shockwaves through the NWS, an agency responsible for issuing life-saving weather warnings, generating daily forecasts, and collecting the data that underpins these critical functions. Employees, lawmakers, and the public alike expressed outrage and concern over the cuts, which many argued would undermine public safety and the nation’s ability to prepare for and respond to extreme weather events.
The Human Impact: Essential Employees and Public Safety at Risk
Among those affected by the layoffs was Kayla Besong, a scientist at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii, a part of the NWS. Dr. Besong, who had only started her role in September, received a termination notice despite being classified as an “essential” employee. Essential employees are required to work without pay during government shutdowns, a designation that Dr. Besong had hoped would protect her job. Her bosses at the warning center, which monitors earthquake and ocean data around the clock to prepare for possible tsunamis, appeared to have been caught off guard by the layoffs.
The layoffs also hit a Weather Service office in California, where three probationary employees, an administrative assistant, a new meteorologist, and a facilities electronics technician were let go. A meteorologist at the office, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retribution, described the emotional impact of the cuts: “There were a lot of tears on Thursday among the team.” The loss of these employees has raised concerns about the agency’s ability to maintain its mission, particularly in regions prone to severe weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and floods.
A Blueprint for Privatization: The Future of the National Weather Service
The Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025” envisions a drastically scaled-back federal government, with NOAA being dismantled and the NWS focusing solely on data collection while “fully commercializing” its forecasting operations. Critics argue that this approach threatens public safety by prioritizing cost-cutting over the agency’s critical role in protecting lives and property. Moreover, the layoffs target the very employees who were hired to address local staffing shortages and bring new skills to the agency.
Louis Uccellini, who served as the director of the NWS from 2013 to 2022, called the layoffs “cruel” and emphasized that many of the terminated employees were young, talented individuals who had been recruited to fill critical gaps in the workforce. “The Weather Service is trying to fill critical needs with these new hires,” he said, highlighting the importance of these employees to the agency’s future.
Public Safety and Economic Concerns: The Broader Implications
The layoffs have sparked widespread concern about the potential consequences for public safety and the economy. Justin Mankin, a climate scientist at Dartmouth College, described the cuts as an “astounding move” and warned that the loss of expertise would be difficult to replace. “This is not trivial expertise that can be recovered with a few well-placed LinkedIn ads,” he said. Dr. Mankin, who uses NOAA data in his research on drought variability, emphasized the importance of the agency’s work to farmers, ranchers, and municipalities that rely on accurate weather forecasts to manage water resources.
Neil Lareau, a wildfire behavior researcher at the University of Nevada, Reno, expressed similar concerns. Many of his students have gone on to work as meteorologists for the NWS, drawn by the agency’s mission of public service. Dr. Lareau noted that young forecasters are essential to the agency’s relevancy, as they bring critical technological skills, including expertise in artificial intelligence, programming, and big data. “These are the people that have that skill set more than anybody else,” he said.
The Role of Young Forecasters and the Future of Weather Prediction
John Toohey-Morales, a longtime television meteorologist in Miami and former NWS forecaster, underscored the importance of the agency’s work to public safety. “I am telling you, the American people are going to suffer from all this,” he said. “Lives are being put in danger.” As a broadcast meteorologist in a hurricane-prone area, Mr. Toohey-Morales relied heavily on the NWS for the data and forecasts that informed his work. “I can’t do my job without the entire scaffolding that NOAA and the National Weather Service provides,” he added.
The layoffs have also raised concerns about the agency’s ability to predict and respond to severe weather events. On the same day the layoffs were announced, Neil Lareau conducted a training session on identifying extreme hazards during wildfires for dozens of meteorologists, many of whom were from the NWS. These incident meteorologists play a crucial role in providing specialized forecasting during events like wildfires, helping to keep firefighters and emergency management officials informed. The loss of these skilled professionals could have dire consequences for the agency’s ability to respond to such events in the future.
Political and Legal Pushback: Fighting the Cuts
The layoffs have been met with fierce resistance from lawmakers and advocates, who argue that the cuts are not only misguided but also illegal. Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, a Democrat, called the Trump administration’s actions “flatly illegal,” citing a recent ruling by the Merit Systems Protection Board that restored the jobs of six federal workers who had been fired. “I can guarantee we will be fighting this action in Congress and in the courts,” Senator Van Hollen said in a statement.
Another Democrat, Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington, also criticized the layoffs, arguing that they jeopardize the nation’s ability to forecast and respond to extreme weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and floods. Senator Cantwell had previously raised concerns about the privatization of the NWS during the confirmation hearing of Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce who oversees NOAA. While Mr. Lutnick assured lawmakers that he believed in “keeping NOAA together,” he also suggested that the private sector could take on some of the forecasting responsibilities traditionally handled by the NWS.
Conclusion: A Fight for the Future of Weather Forecasting
The layoffs at the National Weather Service and NOAA mark a turning point in the debate over the role of government in providing essential services like weather forecasting. While the Trump administration and its allies argue that privatization and cuts are necessary to streamline the federal workforce, critics warn that these actions put public safety and the economy at risk. The fight over the future of the NWS is not just about jobs; it’s about ensuring that the nation has the resources it needs to protect lives and property in the face of increasingly severe weather events.
As the debate rages on, one thing is clear: the stakes could not be higher. The National Weather Service is more than just a government agency—it is a lifeline for millions of Americans who rely on its forecasts and warnings to stay safe. The question now is whether the agency will be allowed to continue its vital work, or whether it will become the latest casualty of a broader effort to shrink the federal government.
