The Slow Grind: Russia’s Stagnant Advance in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has become a grueling, slow-moving conflict that is taking a devastating toll on both sides. Over the past year, Russia has made minimal progress, capturing territory equivalent to just a small fraction of the size of Rhode Island. At this pace, it would take Russia approximately 118 years to fully control Ukraine. This stark reality stands in sharp contrast to the narrative pushed by figures like former President Donald Trump, who recently claimed that Ukraine is “not winning” and is in “a very bad position.” While both sides are suffering heavy losses, the sheer cost of Russia’s advances raises questions about the sustainability of its strategy and the long-term consequences of this protracted conflict.

Russia’s Desperation: Tanks, Mules, and Dwindling Resources

The human and material cost of Russia’s slow progress has been staggering. Estimates suggest that tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, and five entire mechanized divisions have been lost. The destruction of tanks and armored vehicles has been so extensive that Russia has resorted to using pack mules in lieu of modern machinery. This desperation is a clear sign of a military stretched to the breaking point. George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War points out that Russia’s industrial base is struggling to keep up with the demand for tanks and ammunition. Factories like Uralvagonzavod and Tula are working non-stop, but the losses on the battlefield are outpacing production. Without a massive influx of new equipment from allies like North Korea or China, Russia is on track to run critically low on key resources within the next 12 to 18 months.

The Battle Evolves: From Tanks to Drones

The nature of the conflict has undergone a significant shift since Russia launched its invasion in 2022. Initially, the war was marked by the use of advanced missile systems like the Javelin, which allowed Ukrainian forces to destroy Russian armored columns with relative ease. However, over time, the conflict has evolved into an artillery war, with both sides lobbing shells at each other. More recently, the focus has shifted to drones, which have become the primary tool for frontline kills. Andrey Liscovich of the Ukraine Defense Fund notes that drones are cheaper, faster to produce, and more adaptable than tanks, making them a game-changer on the battlefield. While Russia has managed to scale up its drone production, Ukraine has excelled at innovating and deploying these systems effectively.

Unsustainable Losses: The Human Cost of War

The number of casualties on both sides remains a subject of debate, but there is no dispute about the fact that the losses are unsustainable. Russia’s death toll alone could range from hundreds of thousands to as high as 1 million, according to some estimates. These numbers are not only morally staggering but also strategically significant. Both countries are facing severe manpower shortages, with Russia increasingly reliant on mercenaries and convicted soldiers to fill its ranks. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Ukraine’s population is much smaller than Russia’s, leaving both nations in a precarious position as the war drags on.

A Delicate Balance: Who Has Time on Their Side?

Early in the conflict, analysts assumed that Russia’s larger population, industrial base, and experience with long wars would give it a significant advantage over time. However, that assumption has proven to be incorrect. George Barros argues that prolonging the conflict now hurts Russia more than Ukraine, as Moscow struggles to maintain its resources and morale. While Russia’s population is three times larger than Ukraine’s, its society is growing increasingly strained under the pressure of constant recruitment and the economic costs of the war. Ukraine, on the other hand, has managed to adapt and innovate, finding ways to stretch its resources and maintain its defenses despite the odds.

The Path to Peace: A Grim Choice

The debate over which side is “winning” the war is, in many ways, a distraction from the more pressing question of how to bring this conflict to an end. The human cost of the war is immense, with both sides suffering losses that are difficult to justify. Trump’s recent call to end the fighting now rather than later is a grim reminder of the stakes involved. Ukraine, however, believes that its best chance of survival lies in holding out long enough for Russia to run out of men, tanks, and money. If that strategy succeeds, it will come at the cost of immense suffering and destruction. For now, the war remains a brutal, slow-moving grind that seems to have no end in sight. The question is not whether one side will win, but how many lives will be lost before a deal can be struck.