The Rise and Fall of the Axis of Resistance: Iran’s Declining Influence in Iraq
For decades, the Iranian regime meticulously constructed the Axis of Resistance, a network of anti-Western militias that extended its influence across the Arab world. This coalition, which once seemed unassailable, has rapidly unraveled in recent years. The decline of the Axis is nowhere more evident than in Iraq, where many leaders arenow seeking to distance themselves from Tehran’s orbit.
The Axis’s downfall accelerated in 2023. Israel targeted two of its key members, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, significantly weakening their capabilities. Meanwhile, the Assad regime in Syria, long a linchpin of Iranian influence, was toppled by its opponents. In Lebanon, the election of a new president and prime minister who are not aligned with the Axis further eroded Iran’s grip. Until recently, Iran proudly claimed to control four Arab capitals: Damascus, Beirut, Sanaa, and Baghdad. Today, Damascus and Beirut are no longer under its sway. Sanaa remains in the hands of the Houthi rebels, who continue to pledge allegiance to Tehran. But Baghdad, the fourth capital, is where Iran’s influence is most contested—and where its grasp appears to be slipping.
Shifting Political Landscape in Iraq: A Move Away from Tehran
Iran’s influence in Iraq is exercised primarily through the country’s Shia militias and political parties. These groups have long dominated Iraqi politics, and the prime minister cannot govern without their support. However, Tehran’s control over Baghdad is far from absolute. Pro-Tehran parties are unable to form a government on their own and must instead enter coalitions with Kurdish and Sunni parties, which have little affinity for the Axis. Even among Iraq’s Shia population, loyalty to Iran is increasingly contested.
The decline of Iranian influence in Iraq became apparent in the 2021 parliamentary elections, where pro-Tehran parties suffered a resounding defeat. Muqtada al-Sadr, a charismatic Shia cleric and vocal critic of Iran, emerged as the leading political force. Though pro-Iranian forces managed to block him from forming a government through violent protests and political maneuvering, the writing was on the wall. Mohammed al-Sudani, who became prime minister in October 2022, relies on the support of pro-Tehran parties but has also continued to pursue the regional agenda of his predecessor, Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Kadhimi had restored ties with Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan while maintaining strong relations with Iran. Sudani’s government, while still aligned with Tehran, appears to be cautiously exploring a more balanced foreign policy.
The Role of Militias and the Push for Disarmament: A Threat to Iranian Influence
The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of mostly Iran-backed militias formed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State, has been the primary vehicle for Iranian influence in Iraq. Modeled after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the PMF has become deeply entrenched in Iraq’s economy and politics. With around 200,000 members and a nearly $3 billion budget, the PMF is a formidable force. However, its continued existence is now being openly questioned.
Many Iraqis argue that with the Islamic State largely defeated, the PMF is no longer necessary. Fuad Hussein, Iraq’s foreign minister and a member of the Kurdish Democratic Party, has called for the disarmament of the militias, stating that the topic was once taboo but is now openly discussed. Even more surprisingly, some figures within the Coordination Framework, an umbrella of pro-Tehran parties, have endorsed this position. Mohsen al-Mandalawi, a Shia Kurdish billionaire and deputy speaker of the Parliament, has joined the chorus calling for the PMF’s disarmament. If the militias were disarmed or integrated into state security forces, it would effectively strip Iran of its main leverage in Iraq.
The Regional Shifts and Their Impact on Iran’s Influence
The decline of the Axis of Resistance has left Iran in a state of panic. When the Assad regime fell in Syria, Tehran was caught off guard. Iraq, however, responded differently. Iraqi officials, including the intelligence chief, have engaged with the new Syrian administration, signaling a desire to normalize relations. This shift reflects a broader sentiment among Iraqis: they do not want their country to be a battleground for Iran’s conflicts with the United States and Israel.
Moreover, Iraqis are acutely aware that aligning with a declining power like Iran may not serve their interests. The fall of the Assad regime has sent shockwaves through the region, and Iraqis are keen to avoid being on the losing side. As the balance of power shifts away from Tehran, Baghdad is exploring new partnerships with Arab states. Mohammed al-Sudani’s government has continued to pursue ties with Sunni Arab states, even as it maintains relations with Iran. This balancing act is delicate, but it reflects Iraq’s desire to assert its sovereignty and avoid being drawn into regional conflicts.
Iraq’s Balancing Act: Navigating Relations with Tehran and Washington
As Iran’s influence wanes, Iraq is seeking to navigate its relationships with both Tehran and Washington. The new Trump administration has reportedly threatened fresh sanctions against Iraq unless the PMF is disarmed. This has added pressure on the Iraqi government to address the issue. Two of Sudani’s major coalition partners—the Sunni-dominated Progress Party and the Kurdish Democratic Party—previously formed a pact with Muqtada al-Sadr, who has called for the disarmament of militias. Even Sudani’s own party, the Euphrates Movement, once explored a coalition with Sadr.
Despite these developments, Iran’s influence in Iraq remains significant. The Sudani government relies heavily on the support of the Coordination Framework, many of whose parties are deeply tied to Tehran. Experts like Hamdi Malik of the Washington Institute argue that any attempts by Sudani to curb Iranian influence will likely be cosmetic. The PMF’s extensive resources and entrenched position in Iraqi politics make it unlikely to disappear anytime soon. However, the growing calls for disarmament and the shifting regional dynamics suggest that Iran’s grip on Iraq is tenuous at best.
The Road Ahead: Will Iraq Fully Exit the Axis of Resistance?
Iraq’s position in the region is uniquely complex. As a Shia-majority country with deep ties to Iran, it is unlikely to fully sever relations with Tehran. However, Baghdad is working to balance Iranian interests with those of Sunni Arab states and the United States. This cautious disentangling, as described by Iraq expert Arran Robert Walshe, reflects a desire to assert Iraqi sovereignty without alienating Tehran entirely.
The upcoming parliamentary elections in October 2024 could prove pivotal. If pro-Tehran parties are defeated at the polls, Sudani or his successor may have the opportunity to form a government that more assertively challenges Iranian influence. Even within the Coordination Framework, some parties may break away from Tehran and run on new platforms. While the unwritten sectarian power-sharing deal ensures that the prime minister must be an Arab Shia, it does not mandate loyalty to the Axis. As Iraq navigates this uncertain landscape, one thing is clear: the days of unchallenged Iranian dominance in Baghdad are over. The question now is whether Iraq can chart a path that balances its ties to Tehran with its growing relationships with the rest of the Arab world.