The Misconception of Ukraine’s Position in the Russia-Ukraine War
President Donald Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance have asserted that Russia holds the upper hand in the ongoing war with Ukraine, suggesting that Ukraine lacks the resources and momentum to achieve victory. They argue that Russia’s superior firepower, manpower, and industrial capabilities make its triumph inevitable. However, this perspective overlooks critical factors, particularly the nature of attritional warfare and the resilience of Ukraine’s military strategy. As military historians, it is clear that the outcome of this war is far from certain. The lessons of history, including the defeats of the Luftwaffe and the German submarine force in World War II, demonstrate that even seemingly overwhelming forces can be defeated through strategic sophistication and technological superiority.
The Illusion of Russian Invincibility
The idea that Russia is unstoppable ignores the significant challenges it faces. Prior to the war, many analysts believed Ukraine would fall quickly, but this prediction proved wildly inaccurate. Similarly, the current notion that Russia’s advantages are insurmountable fails to account for its deepening vulnerabilities. Russia’s economy is struggling under the weight of soaring inflation, high interest rates, and dwindling oil revenues, with military spending consuming 40% of its budget. Its military-industrial complex is ill-equipped to sustain a prolonged conflict, as evidenced by the staggering losses of tanks, infantry vehicles, and personnel. In 2024 alone, Russia lost 1,400 main battle tanks and over 3,700 infantry fighting vehicles, while its production of such equipment fell far short of replacing these losses.
Ukraine’s Growing Strength and Innovation
While Russia’s military is faltering, Ukraine is demonstrating remarkable resilience and innovation. The war has spurred Ukraine’s defense industry to achieve unprecedented production levels, particularly in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In 2024, Ukraine produced over 1.2 million UAVs, a significant increase from its pre-war capabilities. These drones have become a game-changer on the battlefield, accounting for 70% of Russia’s losses. Ukraine has also developed longer-range heavy UAVs, which have been used to strike deep into Russian territory, disrupting oil production and further weakening the Russian economy. This adaptability and technological prowess highlight Ukraine’s ability to exploit attritional warfare to its advantage.
The Impact of Attritional Warfare
Attritional warfare is not just a passive endurance of losses but an active strategy that smaller powers can use to wear down larger adversaries. Historically, this approach has allowed underdogs like Vietnam and the American colonies to achieve victories against more powerful foes. In this conflict, Ukraine is leveraging attrition effectively, supported by its allies and its own industrial base. While Russia has attempted to target Ukraine’s infrastructure and civilian population, Ukrainian air defenses have successfully neutralized much of this threat, reducing civilian casualties. Ukraine’s ability to maintain its offensive capabilities, including the production of advanced UAVs and potential access to European weaponry like the German Taurus cruise missile, further underscores its capacity to outlast Russia.
The Role of International Support in Ukraine’s War Effort
Despite recent fluctuations in American aid, Ukraine’s position is bolstered by a robust network of international support. Europe and the United States have provided roughly 30% each of Ukraine’s military resources, while Ukraine itself has produced 40% of its own materiel. This self-sufficiency is a testament to Ukraine’s determination and industrial capacity. Additionally, the collective GDP of the European Union, the U.K., and Norway far exceeds Russia’s, creating a significant imbalance in favor of Ukraine. If European nations like Germany follow through on commitments to provide advanced systems like the Taurus missile, Ukraine’s advantages on the battlefield could grow even more pronounced.
Conclusion: Ukraine’s Path to Victory
Contrary to the pessimistic assessments of Trump and Vance, Ukraine is not on the brink of collapse. Instead, it is Russia that is bearing the brunt of the attritional war, with mounting casualties, depleted resources, and a struggling economy. Ukraine’s ability to innovate, adapt, and maintain its offensive capabilities demonstrates that it has plenty of “cards” left to play. The West, particularly the United States, must recognize the strategic importance of supporting Ukraine and apply greater pressure on Russia to bring the conflict to a favorable resolution. With continued international backing and its own resilience, Ukraine’s victory is far from impossible—it is increasingly plausible.
