Speculation Grows Over a Potential Trump-Xi Summit
President Trump has sparked fresh speculation about a possible meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, hinting that preparations are underway for a summit in the "not too distant future." While Trump provided no concrete details, his remarks have fueled anticipation about the possibility of a high-stakes meeting aimed at addressing the ongoing trade tensions between the two superpowers. However, Beijing has not publicly commented on any such plans, leaving the diplomatic community and analysts to decode the signals.
The stakes for such a summit would be extremely high. Trump has already imposed 20 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, and there is a strong possibility of additional tariffs next month. China is eager to prevent further escalation of the trade war, as it seeks to stabilize its economy, which has been facing significant challenges. Experts warn that without a resolution, the trade conflict could derail China’s efforts to revive its slowing economy. A summit between Trump and Xi could provide a much-needed breakthrough, but both sides face significant challenges in making progress.
China’s Questions: What Does Trump Want, and Who Can Influence Him?
Before any summit can take place, China is grappling with two critical questions: What does President Trump want from a trade deal, and who in Washington can Beijing engage with to effectively communicate its positions to Trump? These questions are central to China’s strategy as it seeks to navigate the unpredictable landscape of U.S.-China relations under the Trump administration.
To address these concerns, China has taken the unusual step of dispatching scholars to the United States for unofficial diplomatic talks with Trump administration officials and foreign policy experts. These discussions, which took place last month, reflect China’s growing concern that its traditional diplomatic channels are not effectively conveying its messages to Trump. Officials in Beijing have been primarily dealing with State Department and National Security Council representatives who are outside Trump’s inner circle. Scholars involved in the talks, such as Da Wei of Tsinghua University, have openly questioned whether these officials have the influence or insight to communicate Beijing’s views to the president. “We talk through the diplomatic channel,” Da Wei said. “But can that reach President Trump? Do those people we talked to really know what President Trump is thinking?”
Mixed Signals and the State of U.S.-China Communication
China has also been signaling its interest in talks through public channels. Earlier this month, the Chinese commerce minister extended an invitation to U.S. officials to meet, while other Chinese officials highlighted Beijing’s efforts to combat fentanyl production, urging the U.S. to return to dialogue. Despite these overtures, high-level communication between the two nations has been limited since Trump took office. A phone call between Trump and Xi before Trump’s inauguration in January 2017 was followed by sparse direct engagement. Recent exchanges between top diplomats, such as a conversation between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in late January, have done little to ease tensions.
Analysts suggest that the lack of urgency from the U.S. side for high-level talks may reflect a broader strategy by hawks like Rubio and Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Waltz, to maintain a tough stance on China. Wang Dong of Peking University’s Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding noted that Rubio, in particular, is skeptical of engaging with China, which he views as a strategic threat. “Rubio is not in the mood to do anything” in terms of talks, Wang said.
The High Stakes of a Potential Summit
A summit between Trump and Xi would carry enormous significance, but it would also require careful preparation. China is seeking clarity on what Trump wants from a potential trade deal and how he might respond to Beijing’s priorities. These include lifting tariffs, easing restrictions on U.S. technology exports and Chinese investments in the U.S., and avoiding provocations over Taiwan. At the same time, China is trying to maintain a firm stance in the face of U.S. pressure. Beijing has responded to Trump’s tariffs with targeted countermeasures, such as levies on U.S. agricultural imports, designed to inflict pain while leaving room for future negotiations.
However, analysts caution that time is of the essence. China believes a high-level meeting must occur before Trump imposes additional tariffs, which could raise tensions to a point where Xi might appear weak for agreeing to negotiate. Da Wei warned, “The challenge is, can we move quickly enough before the window of opportunity is closed?” He added that without positive signals to offset the negative trends, bilateral relations could deteriorate further.
The Challenges of Trump’s Diplomatic Style
Trump’s unorthodox approach to diplomacy presents a unique challenge for Chinese officials. Unlike his predecessors, Trump has shown a willingness to use economic coercion and strong-arm tactics, even against U.S. allies. His unpredictability has become a hallmark of his foreign policy, which often prioritizes short-term gains over long-term strategic stability. This approach clashes with China’s more methodical and protocol-driven diplomatic style, which emphasizes maintaining control and avoiding surprises or loss of face.
Chinese officials are particularly concerned about Trump’s tendency to act impulsively, which could lead to unpredictable outcomes from any summit. Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown University professor and former Asia adviser to President Barack Obama, suggested that Trump’s recent comments about a potential Xi visit to Washington were likely more about signaling his interest in a meeting than indicating that concrete plans are in place. Medeiros also noted that China is likely to prefer hosting Trump in Beijing rather than sending Xi to Washington, as a matter of national pride.
The Path Forward: Opportunities and Obstacles
The coming month will be pivotal for U.S.-China relations. Trump’s administration may impose a third round of tariffs on Chinese goods unless serious talks between senior officials take place, according to Wu Xinbo of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, who participated in last month’s unofficial discussions in the U.S. Wu emphasized that “at the moment there is no substantive contact, let alone negotiations” between the two governments.
In the absence of official dialogue, other figures are stepping in to fill the void. Senator Steve Daines of Montana, for example, plans to discuss fentanyl and trade issues during his upcoming visit to China. However, the tougher question remains: What kind of deal, if any, can be reached between the two nations? Trump officials may push for China to increase its purchases of U.S. goods, but China is limited by the lack of competitive American products in key sectors. Yun Sun of the Stimson Center in Washington noted that the U.S. refusal to sell high-tech products to China and its skepticism of Chinese investments further complicate the picture.
For now, Trump appears content to wait and see, using the ongoing tensions to his advantage. “He might be biding his time to build leverage in a future negotiation,” Sun said, while allowing China to “stew in their own juice.” As the situation evolves, one thing is clear: The path to a resolution will require patience, strategy, and a willingness to engage in meaningful dialogue from both sides.
