The 2025 Academy Awards: A Year of Unpredictable Races and Stellar Performances

A Year of Competition and Controversy

The 2025 Academy Awards have been one of the most unpredictable and thrilling races in recent memory. Unlike the more straightforward contests of previous years, this season has seen multiple films rise and fall as front-runners. While blockbusters like Wicked and Dune: Part Two dominated at the box office and secured numerous nominations, smaller, critically acclaimed films like The Substance and Emilia Pérez have also found passionate support. However, Emilia Pérez’s chances at major wins have been dented by external controversies, leaving the Best Picture race wide open.

This year’s Best Picture contenders are a diverse and unconventional group. Films like Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave represent a mix of epic dramas, biographical tales, and intimate storytelling. None of these films have emerged as a clear frontrunner, and each has its own strengths and weaknesses. The Brutalist, for instance, is a sweeping historical drama reminiscent of classic Oscar winners like The Godfather, but its complex narrative and lengthy runtime have polarized audiences. Meanwhile, Anora, a raunchy romantic dramedy, has surged ahead in the final stretch, thanks to key award-season wins, but its edgy content may alienate some voters.

Best Actress: A Battle of Talent and Timing

The Best Actress category is dominated by stellar performances, but Demi Moore’s turn in The Substance seems unstoppable. Moore won the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and Critics Choice Awards, cementing her status as the frontrunner. Her performance in the extreme horror satire, which critiques the brutal treatment of aging actresses in Hollywood, resonates deeply—especially given her own career experiences. Moore’s passionate campaign speeches have further endeared her to voters.

Fernanda Torres delivers a heart-wrenching performance in I’m Still Here, portraying a woman coping with the disappearance of her husband under a military dictatorship. While her work is equally deserving of recognition, Moore’s fame and momentum likely give her the edge.

Who Will Win: Demi Moore
Who Ought to Win: Fernanda Torres

Best Actor: A Clash of Comebacks and Breakthroughs

In the Best Actor race, Adrien Brody has been the frontrunner for his intense portrayal of a Hungarian architect in The Brutalist. However, his Oscar win for The Pianist two decades ago might work against him, as voters often favor first-time winners. This could open the door for Timothée Chalamet, who has received widespread acclaim for his spot-on impersonation of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. Chalamet’s convincing performance and status as Hollywood’s leading young actor make him a strong contender.

Sebastian Stan, however, delivered two standout performances in The Apprentice and A Different Man, showcasing his incredible range and earning a Golden Globe for the latter. While he is a personal favorite, Chalamet’s momentum seems unstoppable.

Who Will Win: Timothée Chalamet
Who Ought to Win: Sebastian Stan

Best Supporting Actress: A Showdown of Scene-Stealers

Zoe Saldaña has been the consistent frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress since the start of awards season. Her role in Emilia Pérez, a French-Spanish crime musical, required her to anchor the film’s complex narrative, and her Hollywood star power hasn’t hurt her campaign. Despite this, Monica Barbaro’s breathtaking portrayal of Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown is a revelation. She captures Baez’s voice and stage presence with uncanny precision, making her the most deserving winner.

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña
Who Ought to Win: Monica Barbaro

Best Supporting Actor: A Wealth of Talent and Trophies

Kieran Culkin has been the runaway winner in the Best Supporting Actor category since A Real Pain premiered at Sundance. His emotionally charged and darkly funny performance, combined with his success from Succession, has earned him every major award leading up to the Oscars. However, the category is filled with equally deserving nominees, including Guy Pearce’s villainous turn in The Brutalist, Jeremy Strong’s chilling portrayal of Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, and Edward Norton’s understated performance in A Complete Unknown. While Culkin is the likely winner, any of these actors would be a worthy choice.

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Who Ought to Win: Guy Pearce, Jeremy Strong, or Edward Norton

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay: A Battle of Style and Substance

The Best Original Screenplay race is a tight contest between Anora and A Real Pain. While Anora has gained momentum as the Best Picture frontrunner, A Real Pain is the kind of clever, dialogue-driven film that often wins in this category. Still, Anora’s quirky, emotionally resonant screenplay deserves recognition. In the Adapted Screenplay category, Conclave is the clear frontrunner for its tightly wound, dialogue-heavy adaptation of a best-selling novel. However, Nickel Boys stands out for its bold and innovative take on Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer-winning novel.

Best Original Screenplay:
Who Will Win: A Real Pain
Who Ought to Win: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Who Will Win: Conclave
Who Ought to Win: Nickel Boys

Best Director and Best Picture: A Split Decision?

The question on everyone’s mind is whether Best Director will align with Best Picture. While Brady Corbet’s maximalist direction in The Brutalist has earned him critical acclaim, Sean Baker’s intimate and empathetic work in Anora has won over many voters. Corbet’s direction is a likely winner, but Baker’s consistency across multiple categories makes him a strong contender.

In the Best Picture race, Anora has emerged as the frontrunner after winning key guild awards, but Conclave’s recent BAFTA and SAG Ensemble wins have thrown a wrench into the mix. While Anora seems poised to take the top prize, Nickel Boys is undoubtedly the year’s most innovative and emotionally impactful film, deserving of greater recognition.

Best Director:
Who Will Win: Brady Corbet
Who Ought to Win: Sean Baker

Best Picture:
Who Will Win: Anora
Who Ought to Win: Nickel Boys

This year’s Oscars have been a rollercoaster of twists and turns, with no clear-cut winners in most categories. While some races seem all but decided, others remain wide open, making the ceremony one of the most exciting in years.