The Best Picture Race: A Wide-Open Field

The race for Best Picture at this year’s Academy Awards is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. While “Conclave,” the papal thriller starring Ralph Fiennes, took home the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, its path to Oscar glory is far from certain. Historically, the last three films that won the SAG’s highest honor—“Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “CODA”—also secured Best Picture at the Oscars. However, “Conclave” has only won one other major Best Picture award, at the BAFTAs, and its director, Edward Berger, was notably snubbed in the Best Director category. This omission is significant, as only six films in Oscar history have won Best Picture without a corresponding directing nomination.

Meanwhile, “Anora,” a comedy-drama about a stripper whose fairy-tale romance unravels, has gained momentum with key wins at the Directors Guild of America and Producers Guild of America awards—prizes that are often strong predictors of Oscar success. With both films in the running, the competition remains fierce, and the Best Picture category is anyone’s game.

Scandals and Backlash Surround Emilia Pérez

Just weeks ago, Emilia Pérez seemed like a unstoppable force in this year’s Oscar race. The Spanish-language musical, distributed by Netflix, earned a historic 13 nominations, the most of any film this year, and its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, made history as the first openly transgender actress to be nominated for Best Actress. The film also won four awards at the Golden Globes, including Best Non-English-Language Motion Picture and Best Musical or Comedy Motion Picture.

However, Emilia Pérez’s Oscar prospects have been derailed by controversy. In late January, journalist Sarah Hagi uncovered derogatory tweets Gascón had posted years ago, including offensive comments about Muslims, George Floyd, and the diversity of past Oscar winners. Netflix quickly distanced itself from Gascón, and while the actress issued an apology, she continued to defend herself on Instagram, claiming some of her posts were misconstrued or manipulated.

The backlash against Emilia Pérez extends beyond Gascón’s remarks. Critics argue that the film, directed by French filmmaker Jacques Audiard, sensationalizes Mexico’s drug violence and was filmed almost entirely in France despite its Mexican setting. Additionally, GLAAD condemned the film for its “profoundly retrograde portrayal of a trans woman,” further damaging its chances. With Gascón skipping recent awards ceremonies and Netflix shifting its promotional focus to co-star Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez’s Oscar dreams appear to be fading fast.

Could This Be Demi Moore’s Moment?

Demi Moore’s career has been a Hollywood story for decades, and now, at 62, she may be on the brink of her biggest triumph yet. Moore won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy for her chilling role in The Substance, a body horror film about a fading star’s gruesome attempts to stay relevant. Her heartfelt acceptance speech, in which she celebrated her resilience and self-worth, resonated deeply with audiences and added momentum to her Oscar campaign.

Moore’s competition in the Best Actress category is fierce, with nominees including Mikey Madison (Anora), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez). Yet, Moore’s name recognition and her recent Screen Actors Guild Award win over Madison, Erivo, and Gascón position her as a strong contender. Her comeback story, coupled with her powerful performance, could make her the sentimental favorite on Oscar night.

No Other Land: A Documentary Without a U.S. Distributor

Despite winning the top documentary award and the audience award at the Berlin International Film Festival in 2024, No Other Land has struggled to find a U.S. distributor. This is unusual, given that buzzy, award-winning films are typically snapped up by studios eager to boost their Oscar chances. The film, which documents Israel’s efforts to expel families in the West Bank, has been praised for its audacity and emotional impact but has reportedly been avoided due to political sensitivities.

Directed by a team of Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers, No Other Land has already secured screenings in about two dozen U.S. theaters, with more on the way. However, its producers hope a U.S. distributor—or a streaming platform like Netflix or Max—will help widen its reach. An Oscar win could be the catalyst needed to bring this critical and deeply important film to a broader audience.

Cynthia Erivo Inches Closer to EGOT Status

Cynthia Erivo, already a Tony, Grammy, and Emmy winner, is one step away from joining the exclusive EGOT club. Her nomination for Best Actress for her role as Elphaba in Wicked could make her the youngest person to achieve this distinction at just 38 years old. Erivo first rose to prominence in 2016 with her Tony-winning performance as Celie in The Color Purple, followed by a Grammy win for the musical’s cast album and a daytime Emmy for a performance on the Today show.

Should Erivo win the Oscar, she would become only the 22nd person to achieve EGOT status in competitive categories. Her journey to this milestone is a testament to her versatility and talent, and her viral press tour with Wicked co-star Ariana Grande has only heightened her appeal. Erivo’s performance as the green-skinned heroine has already earned widespread acclaim, and an Oscar win would cement her legacy as one of the most accomplished artists of her generation.

The Oscars Will Go On Despite Wildfires

This year’s Oscars ceremony has faced unprecedented challenges, including devastating wildfires that swept through Los Angeles in January. The fires forced the Academy to postpone the announcement of nominees and cancel the annual Oscars luncheon, which had only been canceled once before, during the pandemic. Despite these setbacks, the show will go on as scheduled at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday night.

In a letter to Academy members, CEO Bill Kramer and President Janet Yang emphasized the resilience of Los Angeles and its status as a beacon for filmmakers. The ceremony will honor the firefighters and first responders who battled the wildfires, striking a balance between glamour and solemnity. The Grammys earlier this year provided a template for how to address tragedy during an awards show, blending tributes with fundraising efforts. As the Oscars take place, the focus will be on celebrating cinematic excellence while acknowledging the challenges faced by the city and its people.